SuperEx丨$100,000 is the key resistance level，What factors will affect BTC’s breakthrough?

superex · 2024-11-25T11:44:30Z

#SuperEx #BTC #Crypto

Recently, the popularity of the Bitcoin (BTC) market has reached a new high. The price of BTC has steadily stayed above $99,000 and formed a strong support area within the range of $89,000 — $91,000. The trading price on the day, which was $99,848, was close to $100,000, and the market sentiment was optimistic.

The 24-hour trading volume was quite active, reflecting investors’ continuous interest in this price range. Over the past month, BTC has achieved a 48% increase in price. Moreover, its trend after breaking through the historical high is similar to that of the bull market in 2020.

Historical data shows that after BTC breaks through in price, it usually enters a consolidation stage and then ushers in a new round of explosive growth. Technical analysis also supports the possibility of further increases in the short term.

The key support level is located in the range of $89,000 — $91,000, while the short-term resistance point is around $100,000. If it can break through this level, BTC is expected to target $200,000.

Frankly speaking, most cryptocurrency practitioners around the world are looking forward to BTC breaking through the resistance level of $100,000 and then soaring.

Let’s analyze from multiple aspects such as technical aspects and comprehensive considerations to see which factors are sufficient to support BTC’s breakthrough at the $100,000 mark.

Continuous Inflow of Institutional Funds

The recent large influx of institutional funds is one of the important reasons driving the rise of BTC. Some large financial institutions, such as Blackstone and Fidelity, are accelerating the layout of products related to the cryptocurrency market, further strengthening the market’s confidence in Bitcoin.

Dynamics in the Futures Market

According to the data from the CME, the open interest of BTC futures hit a new high this week, indicating investors’ strong interest in future market trends. Market sentiment indicators suggest that many traders believe that a breakthrough at the $100,000 mark may trigger a new round of buying sprees.

Macroeconomic Drivers

Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in interest rate hikes, Bitcoin is regarded as a hedge asset against the depreciation of the US dollar and inflationary pressures, attracting the attention of a large number of traditional investors. In addition, institutions in the United States and Europe have increased their investment in blockchain-related infrastructure, further boosting market sentiment.

Optimistic On-Chain Data

According to Glassnode data, the number of Bitcoin addresses with holdings for more than one year has hit a new high, indicating the long-term bullish sentiment of market participants. Meanwhile, the number of active addresses and the number of transactions have continued to increase, demonstrating the wide participation in the market.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

The current strong support area is between $89,000 and $91,000, and $100,000 is the short-term strong resistance level. If it breaks through this level, Bitcoin is expected to further test the targets of $105,000 or even $120,000. However, the market may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, and the trading volume needs to continue to expand to support the price breakthrough.

Trading Volume and Holding Trends

Data shows that the trading volume of Bitcoin has increased significantly after breaking through the historical high, indicating relatively abundant market liquidity. In addition, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (HODLers) of Bitcoin have not sold off on a large scale recently, which provides support for price stability.

Strengthening Technical Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the overbought area but has not reached an extreme high, indicating that the market still has upward momentum.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a new bullish crossover signal, predicting a possible further increase in the short term.

The current analysis shows that the probability of BTC breaking through $100,000 by the end of November is 79%, but the probability of further rising to $105,000 is 46%, and the possibility of reaching $150,000 is only 1%.

The driving force behind this round of increases comes from the Bitcoin halving effect earlier this year, the improvement of the regulatory environment in the United States, and the continuous interest of institutional investors.

After Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, the market may enter a new price discovery stage. Although there is a possibility of short-term corrections, the support from fundamentals and technical aspects keeps the long-term upward trend of BTC unchanged, and investors’ confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term investment asset remains strong.