SuperEx丨BTC Price Falls Below $93,000: In-depth Analysis of Causes and Future Trends.

superex · 2024-11-28T12:01:43Z

#SuperEx #BTC #Crypto
The price of Bitcoin recently underwent a notable correction, dropping from a high near $100,000 to below $93,000, sparking widespread attention in the market. Although the price has since rebounded to the $95,000 range, this volatility has prompted investors to reassess the current market environment and future trends.

This correction is not an isolated event but the result of multiple factors acting in concert. This article explores three core aspects — profit-taking at psychological thresholds, heightened macroeconomic risk aversion, and increased miner selling pressure — using data and market logic to provide insights into future developments.

Note: This is a market analysis article and should not be taken as investment advice. Markets are risky; investments should be made cautiously.

In terms of the core reasons for this correction, it is under the dual pressure of “the psychological thresholds brought about by the increase exceeding expectations + the mentality of taking profits due to the risk of a pullback after a sharp rise”.

In simple terms, the $100,000 price level represents a long-standing psychological threshold. Many investors chose to lock in profits as the price approached this level. Simultaneously, concerns about a market pullback diminished confidence among short-term speculators, amplifying selling pressure and creating a chain reaction.

Long-term holders often sell at market peaks to secure profits. According to Glassnode, recently active wallets primarily belong to whales holding Bitcoin for over a year, signaling that some long-term investors are reducing their positions.

On the other hand, the rising macro risk-averse sentiment in the market has affected the market trend of BTC.

Recently, the signals from the Federal Reserve that it may continue to tighten monetary policy in the future have increased the uncertainty in the market. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy prices have made investors tend to reduce their risk exposure and turn to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and treasury bonds.

Although the spot Bitcoin ETF has played an important role in driving up the price, the market sentiment has gradually become calmer, and the slowdown in the inflow of ETF funds has also intensified the short-term pressure.

From a data perspective:

Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY rose over 1% this week, reflecting increased demand for dollar-based assets. Historically, a stronger dollar dampens Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value.

ETF Inflows: Data from ETF tracking agencies show a 15% decline in Bitcoin spot ETF inflows during the third week of November compared to the prior two weeks, suggesting investors are adjusting their short-term positions.

The third aspect is that the current increase in miners’ selling has also provided important clues for this price correction.

The computing power of the entire Bitcoin network hit a new record in November. This phenomenon indicates that the competition among miners has intensified, leading to an increase in operating costs. In order to maintain cash flow, some miners have chosen to sell the BTC they have mined at high prices.

Miner Wallet Outflows: CryptoQuant data reveals a 20% week-over-week increase in miner wallet outflows, indicating that miners are raising funds for operations or hardware upgrades.

Miner Position Index (MPI): The MPI surged to 3.2, a level typically associated with heightened miner selling pressure, which can weigh on market prices in the short term.

The judgment of BTC’s subsequent trend mainly starts from two aspects: the news front and the technical front. The news front has a strong lagging nature, and we are currently unable to predict it. However, we can still see some clues from it.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: $93,000 serves as a short-term support level. If breached, Bitcoin could test $90,000 or even the 200-day moving average near $85,000. Despite the current rebound to $95,000, short-term trends do not dictate the overall trajectory.

Resistance: The $99,000 to $100,000 range remains a significant resistance zone, requiring strong inflows to break through effectively.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 48, indicating a transition from overbought to neutral-weak territory.

MACD: The daily MACD histogram continues to expand downward, suggesting bearish momentum.

On-Chain Data:

Active Addresses: The number of active Bitcoin network addresses fell by 10% during the correction, reflecting reduced trading activity.

Exchange Flows: Net BTC inflows to exchanges rose to 30,000 BTC, signaling sustained selling pressure.

If the current support holds, the price of Bitcoin may maintain a volatile trend between $93,000 and $98,000 in the short term. This is also the current market performance. Investors can pay attention to changes in trading volume and on-chain buying support.