Trump: U.S. Economy Entering a ‘Transition Period,’ Does Not Rule Out a Recession This Year

[SuperExMedia]

#Trump #US #Crypto

This article serves as a companion piece to our previous analysis, where we provided a detailed breakdown of the fundamental causes behind Wall Street’s Black Monday sell-off.

In this article, we shift our focus to the state of the U.S. economy itself, analyzing the key concern dominating market discussions — Trump’s remarks on the possibility of a U.S. recession this year. Let’s begin with Trump’s statements:

• Trump stated: “Building a strong America is something I must do; I have no time to worry about how the stock market feels. China makes century-long plans, while the U.S. operates on a quarterly basis — this won’t work. I have to do what’s right.”
• Trump told Fox News that his tariff and trade policies could cause “some turbulence”, and he does not rule out the possibility of a U.S. recession this year.
• Speaking on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Trump remarked: “I hate making these kinds of predictions. People will see a transition period because what we are doing is incredibly important — we are bringing wealth back to America.”
• Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent also stated that the U.S. economy may go through a difficult period during this economic transition.

Of course, not all voices within the U.S. government align on this issue. Commerce Secretary Lutnick dismissed the possibility of an economic contraction during a televised speech last Sunday. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, he stated: “The United States will not fall into a recession. Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, the U.S. economy has never entered a recession.”

Against this backdrop, debates over the future trajectory of the U.S. economy have become increasingly heated, with a wide range of perspectives emerging in the market.

In the following sections, we will conduct a comprehensive and objective analysis from multiple angles, including:

• Macroeconomic data
• Structural adjustments
• Market sentiment
• Industry shifts
• The international economic environment

Our goal is to uncover the deeper implications of Trump’s remarks and assess their potential impact on the future of the U.S. economy.

Please note: This article does not take any political stance — it is purely an economic analysis.

Trump’s remarks reflect the current administration’s efforts to drive structural economic adjustments.

Trump believes that the United States must undergo a deep industrial shift and structural upgrade to confront the increasing challenges of global competition. According to recent reports from economic research institutions, the U.S. economy is currently in a critical transition period, shifting from traditional manufacturing to high-tech industries, renewable energy, and the service sector.

Data shows that while U.S. manufacturing growth has slowed over the past three years, the high-tech sector, biotechnology, and new energy vehicle industries have far outpaced the overall economic growth rate. For example, in 2023, the U.S. high-tech industry recorded an output growth of approximately 8%, whereas traditional manufacturing hovered between 2% and 3%.

From an economic data perspective, while short-term volatility risks exist, the U.S. economy remains fundamentally stable. In Q4 2022, U.S. GDP grew by approximately 2.1% year-over-year, while unemployment remained within the range of 3.8% to 4.2%. Additionally, consumer confidence indices remained at relatively optimistic levels.

However, market analysts highlight multiple challenges currently facing the U.S. economy, including global supply chain disruptions, rising inflationary pressures, and intensified international trade frictions, all of which are contributing to short-term downside risks.

For instance, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown a slight decline in recent months, indicating business concerns over future orders and capacity utilization. Additionally, some economists predict that U.S. economic growth this year could fall below 2%, aligning with Trump’s characterization of the economy as being in a “transition period.”

Therefore, from an economic data perspective, it is not difficult to discern the intention behind Trump’s remarks. As the President of the United States, every official statement is naturally carefully considered.Trump’s comments seem to emphasize that through policy intervention and industrial upgrading, the resilience and competitiveness of the U.S. economy will be significantly enhanced in the future. His acknowledgment of potential short-term market turbulence appears more like a “precautionary signal” — preparing markets and investors for the temporary instability that may accompany structural adjustments.

Tariffs and Trade Policies Are Undoubtedly a Core Issue

Since Trump took office, the tariffs and trade policies he implemented have been a topic of heated debate both domestically and internationally.

According to statistics, since 2018, U.S. tariff increases on certain countries and regions have impacted hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of imported goods. This has, to some extent, triggered price transmission effects on domestic businesses and consumers. While these policies aim to protect domestic industries and promote employment, they have also raised concerns among some businesses regarding supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs.

In fact, some U.S. manufacturing companies have recently reported signs of increasing raw material costs and declining orders. Trump’s remark that “tariffs and trade policies may cause some turbulence” reflects an acknowledgment of these real-world economic impacts.

From an international trade perspective, in the first half of 2023, the U.S. trade deficit widened, partly due to export slowdowns caused by tariff barriers.Economists generally believe that while trade tensions may put short-term pressure on economic growth, if these policies successfully drive supply chain reshoring and strengthen domestic manufacturing competitiveness, they could enhance the overall quality and resilience of the U.S. economy in the long run.

Trump’s Narrative on the U.S. Economic “Transition Period” Has Also Sparked Market Discussions on the “Growing Pains of Structural Adjustments.”

It is widely recognized that every major economic structural adjustment comes with an inevitable period of growing pains. This is an unavoidable reality, as new winners emerge while certain entrenched interests suffer losses.

Historically, economic transformations have often been accompanied by downturns and market adjustments. For example, both the oil crisis of the 1970s and the global financial crisis of 2008 left lasting impacts on economic growth and market stability.Currently, the U.S. is at a critical juncture of shifting economic drivers, where conflicts between traditional and emerging industries are becoming increasingly evident.

Take the automobile industry as an example:The market for traditional fuel-powered vehicles is steadily shrinking, while the electric vehicle (EV) market is rapidly expanding.According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), in 2023, U.S. EV sales increased by over 30% year-over-year, whereas sales of traditional fuel-powered vehicles declined by nearly 10%.

This shift is not only reflected in production and sales volumes but also in employment structures and supply chain reorganization, marking a significant transformation across the industry.

Trump’s statement, “I have no time to worry about how the stock market feels,” underscores his focus on the fundamental issues of long-term economic health rather than short-term market fluctuations.

This perspective has also been endorsed by some economists, who argue that economic structural adjustments inherently come with a period of volatility. They believe that only through a combination of policy guidance and market self-adjustment can the U.S. achieve truly high-quality economic growth.

Of course, Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s remarks also reflect the dual perspectives within the U.S. government regarding the future trajectory of the economy. Fundamentally, they highlight the government’s multiple considerations regarding structural adjustments and market expectations.

Lutnick’s optimism is primarily based on the U.S. economy’s historical growth trajectory and the innovation capacity of its businesses, particularly the strong performance of the technology and service sectors.

In recent years, American companies have continuously driven global innovation, with R&D investment as a percentage of GDP steadily increasing. This has provided strong support for long-term economic growth.Statistical data shows that in 2023, U.S. corporate R&D spending accounted for more than 3% of GDP, surpassing the average level of many developed countries.To some extent, this data validates Lutnick’s stance that the economy will not fall into long-term decline due to short-term fluctuations.

Against this backdrop, market predictions about the future trajectory of the U.S. economy have become increasingly polarized.

• On one hand, some investors worry that global supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and escalating trade tensions could further impact the U.S. economy, increasing the risk of a recession.
• On the other hand, many institutions believe that the current market adjustment is merely a cyclical phenomenon, and that short-term fluctuations do not indicate a deterioration of long-term economic fundamentals.

From an industrial structure perspective, the U.S. economy is currently facing a series of deep-rooted transformation challenges.

Traditional manufacturing is under increasing competitive pressure due to globalization and technological advancements, while emerging high-tech industries, despite their dynamism, face challenges such as talent shortages and high R&D costs.

In recent years, the U.S. government has actively introduced policies to encourage technological innovation and industrial upgrading, focusing on areas like artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and semiconductors. The goal is to enhance domestic control over critical supply chains through policy-driven incentives.

Data reflects these efforts — in 2023, U.S. investment in the semiconductor sector grew nearly 20% year-over-year, while funding for electric vehicles and battery technology also surged significantly.These figures indicate that the U.S. economy is undergoing a profound structural transformation. While this shift may cause short-term disruptions, in the long run, industrial upgrading could lead to a more stable and sustainable economic growth model.Trump’s mention of a “transition period” directly reflects this phenomenon. Market concerns and panic are often tied to the growing pains of structural adjustments. The key question for policymakers and market participants is how to balance short-term disruptions with long-term benefits.

Lastly, it is worth noting that when addressing economic downturn risks, the U.S. government typically implements a range of adjustment policies, including fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and structural reforms.

Historical experience shows that whenever the U.S. economy faces downward pressure, the government often introduces large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, such as tax cuts and increased public investment, to boost domestic demand and restore market confidence in response to external shocks.Currently, the U.S. government is actively discussing its next policy adjustments. Some analysts predict that in the coming months, targeted support policies for specific industries and regions may be introduced to help businesses navigate economic challenges.

From a policy transmission perspective, such measures could have a positive impact on corporate profitability, consumer confidence, and investor expectations, thereby creating favorable conditions for economic recovery.While these policies may lead to short-term fiscal burdens and monetary policy pressures, in the long run, they are expected to drive economic restructuring and unlock new sources of endogenous growth.